Dosya:Fiscal Reform Commission - Public Debt Projections.png

Understanding the Chart

The chart is from page 10 of the final report of the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, which was issued in December 2010. The following is the chart caption in the report: "The Extended-Baseline Scenario generally assumes continuation of current law. The Alternative Fiscal Scenario incorporates several changes to current law considered likely to happen, including the renewal of the 2001/2003 tax cuts on income below $250,000 per year, continued Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) patches, the continuation of the estate tax at 2009 levels, and continued Medicare “Doc Fixes.” The Alternative Fiscal Scenario also assumes discretionary spending grows with Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rather than to inflation over the next decade, that revenue does not increase as a percent of GDP after 2020, and that certain cost-reducing measures in the health reform legislation are unsuccessful in slowing cost growth after 2020."^[1] These scenarios are discussed in further detail in the Commissions Report and the CBO's periodic Long Term Budget Outlook reports.