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Understanding the chart

The panel chart illustrates 9 key economic variables for the 2014-2019 periods, measured annually. The 2014-2016 periods were during President Obama's second term, while the 2017-2019 periods were during President Trump's first term.

1. GDP growth of 2.9% in 2018 was the same as 2015, but better than 2016 and 2017.
2. Job creation in 2019 was the slowest of the six periods compared.
3. Unemployment rate has consistently fallen since 2010; this continued 2014-2019.
4. Inflation (CPI All) slowed after rising in 2016-2018.
5. Real wage growth (wage increase less inflation) picked up in 2019, as nominal wage growth improved and inflation fell.
6. Budget deficit fell in 2015, but has risen since. Budget deficits in 2018-2019 were 60% above the January 2017 CBO 10-year forecast, mainly due to the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act
7. Number of adults under 65 without insurance hit a low in 2016 and increased by 1.9 million by the end of 2018.
8. Stock market fell 6.3% in 2018, then rebounded strongly in 2019 with a 28.9% gain, the best year since 2013's gain of 29.6%.
9. Mortgage rates increased in 2017 and 2018 as the Fed raised interest rates, but fell in 2019 as they reversed course and lowered rates.

Sources

• Real GDP Growth: Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Data tables.^[1]
• Job Creation (Non-Farm): FRED series "Payems"
• Unemployment Rate: FRED "Unrate"
• Inflation: FRED series "CPIAUCSL"
• Real wage increase: FRED, using wages for "All Employees: Total Private" less "Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items."^[2]
• Budget Deficit: CBO Historical tables. Note that fiscal year 2017 was budgeted by President Obama and ran from October 1, 2016 to September 30, 2017; Trump started his first term in January 2017, so 3.5 months into that fiscal year. He made few budgetary changes with significant impact on 2017.
• % Number without health insurance: CDC
• Stock Market: FRED series "SP500", year end values.
• Mortgage rates: FRED series "MORTGAGE30US"

References

Özet

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